How To Interpret The Odds
How To Trade Using Odds
How To Interpret The Odds
(Written Version)
Odds for each stock/crpyto are calculated as follows:
- First, we find all the trading days since 2010 where the stock/crypto moved (in percentage terms) an equivalent amount to what the stock/crypto has moved today.*
- Then, we calculate the return that would have been realized on each of these past trading days (past occurrences) if you bought the stock/crypto at the point it was up/down the exact amount it is up/down today and held until:
- The same day’s market close for Same Day Live Odds
- The next trading day’s market close for One Day Live Odds
- The market close five (seven for crypto) trading days later for One Week Live Odds
- Finally, based on all those past occurrences, we calculate the following statistics/odds for each timeframe:
- “Average Return” or “Avg”: The average return of all the past occurrences
- “Up Odds”: The percent of past occurrences that would have yielded a positive (up) return
- “Up Trades”: The number of past occurrences that were positive
- “Down Trades”: The number of past occurrences that were negative
- “Min”: The past occurence with the lowest return
- “Max”: The past occurence with the highest return
- Histogram Bars: Each bar corresponds to a return range based on the two values underneath the bar. The number on top of the bar represents the number of past occurrences that had a return within this range. The bars are sized relative to this value.
*The move has to have occurred during market hours.